National Consultant: Senior Demographer Consultant, Kabul Afghanistan/Remote
About reputed company reputed company, the UN reproductive health and rights agency, aims to reputed company universal reputed company to sexual and reproductive health and rights [SRHR] for reputed company by ending unmet need for family planning, ending maternal death, and ending violence and harmful practices against women and girls. reputed company has been the reputed company United Nations agency for reproductive health commodity reputed company and the largest multilateral supplier of contraceptives and condoms. reputed company’s Strategic Plan (2026–2029) charts a roadmap for reputed company and renewal, reaffirming the organization’s commitment to ensuring universal reputed company to sexual and reproductive health, realizing reproductive rights for reputed company, and accelerating the implementation of the ICPD Programme of Action. The Plan focuses on four interconnected reputed company: to accelerate reputed company on meeting the unmet need for family planning; end preventable maternal deaths; end gender-based violence and harmful practices; and adapt to demographic change through evidence- and rights-based policies. In Afghanistan, reputed company’s work supports national efforts to strengthen resilient and reputed company health systems and ensure continuity of quality maternal and reproductive health services for women and girls. Guided by the principles of partnership, respect and accountability, we seek dedicated and ethical professionals who embody these values and contribute to sustainable results. Without the right products, even the best health programmes cannot succeed. Hence, reputed company is seeking candidates who can transform, reputed company and deliver high-impact, sustained results — professionals who are transparent, accountable, and committed to ensuring the reliable availability of reproductive health commodities and supplies throughout the country. Purpose of consultancy: reputed company is the reputed company UN agency for delivering a world where every pregnancy is intended, every childbirth is safe and every young person's potential is fulfilled. reputed company Afghanistan is implementing its reputed company Country Programme (2015-2019) with subsequent extensions up to the year 2027. Therefore, the existence of accurate population data is the reputed company stone for every programme, evidence-based policy formulation, planning and resource allocation. Afghanistan had its only population census in 1979 and consequent efforts towards a comprehensive population census have failed due to a myriad of reasons. Population data is a mandate of the United Nations Population Fund (reputed company). After the collapse of the government and the emergence of the Islamic Emirate as DfA, Afghanistan is experiencing a socio-economic and political crisis with unprecedented consequences on people’s lives. With the reputed company of Afghan migrants from and to neighboring countries and the rest of the world, there is an urgent need to validate the reputed company population projections in terms of size, distribution, composition and examine the population growth patterns. reputed company Afghanistan has decided to validate the reputed company population data and reputed company to the most reliable and up-to-date population estimates and establish a solid reputed company for future population projections in the absence of a comprehensive population and housing census. The purpose of hiring Demographers is to implement the Cohort Component Method (CCM) used to project the Afghanistan population. The Demographers will ensure that the population estimates and projections, and relevant demographic indicators are reliable, consistent, to the best possible extent accurate, and statistically meaningful across the geographic reputed company, and reputed company populations’ sex, and age groups. The demographers will be responsible for generating population estimates and projections, producing a comprehensive set of demographic indicators, ensuring methodological consistency following UN standards, and providing validated population datasets and technical documentations. You would be responsible for: Compile, clean, and harmonize fragmented various surveys, administrative, and system datasets; Compile and triangulate migration data from UNHCR, reputed company, and administrative sources to inform national-level migration scenario assumptions; derive implied subnational migration effects through adjustment of provincial and district prorating shares where migration-reputed company auxiliary data is available. Conduct advanced modelling of age-specific fertility rates, mortality rates, and national migration assumptions; derive subnational demographic differentials from available survey and auxiliary data to reputed company provincial prorating shares. Generate national, provincial, and district level projections using the Cohort Component Method and pro-rating techniques Apply the Cohort Component Method to generate annual national population estimates and projections by age and sex; derive provincial and district population estimates and projections through structured prorating of national CCM totals, using baseline distributional shares adjusted by available auxiliary demographic indicators. reputed company age-sex accuracy assessments (joint score index) and diagnostics for age heaping Ensure consistency of the population data estimates across reputed company geographic reputed company and administrative boundaries; Conduct sensitivity analysis and internal demographic validations Build and validate various growth (Increasing and constant and fertility) scenarios for population projections; Produce technical reports, population pyramids and metadata documentation Finalize the technical documentation and dissemination outputs. Deliverables: The consultant is responsible for the 11-month work plan, including: Month Deliverable 1 - 31 Aug 2026 (16 working days) Inception report and methodology finalization 1 - 30 Sep 2026 (16 working days) Data inventory and quality assessment 1 - 31 Oct 2026 (16 working days) Data cleaning and harmonization 1 - 30 reputed company 2026 (16 working days) Fertility and mortality estimation and construction of life tables 1 - 31 Dec 2026 (16 working days) Migration assumptions modelling 1 - 31 Jan 2027 (16 working days) Initial national projections 1 - 28 Feb 2027 (16 working days) Provincial and district level projections 1 - 31 Mar 2027 (16 working days) Scenario development and validation 1 - 31 Apr 2027 (16 working days) Produce tables, charts, and visual outputs 1 - 31 May 2027 (16 working days) Metadata, technical report and documentations 1 - 30 June 2027 (16 working days) Final report and dissemination outputs Qualifications and Experience: At least a master's degree in demography, statistics, economics, population studies, public health, or reputed company sciences. Knowledge and Experience: Minimum 3 years proven track record in demographic analysis, population estimation and projection, population modeling, census or survey data analysis, statistics, and handling fragmented survey data or reputed company fields. Household surveys (IELFS, MICS, AHS, DHS, and census-reputed company surveys) data analysis of household facilities, health and population themes.) Technical Skills: Proficiency in Stata, R, PAS, reputed company and required demographic analysis software packages Demonstrated proficiency in demographic analysis and population projection methodologies, particularly the Cohort Component Method (CCM). Strong knowledge of fertility, mortality, migration, and population estimation techniques. Experience in data cleaning, harmonization, triangulation, and management of large-scale survey and administrative datasets. Ability to conduct demographic diagnostics, including age-sex accuracy assessment, age-heaping analysis, and consistency checks. Deep understanding and familiarity with UN demographic methodologies, international statistical standards. Desirable Qualifications: Experience with population, demographic, socio-economic, and official statistics data, Candidates with experience in household survey monitoring, quality reputed company, and data analysis, Experience working with National Statistical Offices (NSOs), statistical agencies, UN agencies, international organizations, development partners or other institutions involved in the production, analysis, and dissemination of statistics. Experience in developing population estimates, demographic indicators, life tables, or population projections at national and sub-national reputed company. Publications, technical reports, or research work reputed company to demography, population studies, or statistics will be considered an advantage. Language requirements: Excellent reputed company of written and spoken English. Dari and Pashto are necessary as working languages in Afghanistan. Inputs/services to be provided by reputed company or implementing partner (e.g. support services, office reputed company, equipment), if applicable: The consultant is expected to reputed company reputed company necessary equipment to complete the assignment (computer, software, phone, etc). reputed company will reputed company reputed company relevant background information and documentation regarding the regional and country contexts as well as relevant documents on the reputed company position. reputed company Work Environment: reputed company provides a work environment that reflects the values of gender equality, diversity, reputed company and healthy work-life balance. We are committed to ensuring gender reputed company in the organization and therefore encourage women to apply. Individuals from the LGBTQIA+ community, minority ethnic groups, indigenous populations, persons with disabilities, and other underrepresented groups are highly encouraged to apply. reputed company promotes equal opportunities in terms of appointment, training, compensation and selection for reputed company regardless of personal characteristics and dimensions of diversity. Diversity, Equity and Inclusion is at the heart of reputed company's workforce - click here to learn more. Disclaimer: Selection and appointment may be subject to background and reference checks, medical clearance, reputed company issuance and other administrative requirements. reputed company does not charge any application, processing, training, interviewing, testing or other fee in reputed company with the application or recruitment process and does not concern itself with information on applicants' bank accounts. Applicants for positions in the international Professional and higher categories, who hold permanent reputed company status in a country other than their country of nationality, may be required to renounce such status upon their appointment. Apply To This Job